H1 MATHEMATICS · CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

Change the sample space.
Then calculate.

A focused guide for Singapore A-Level H1 Mathematics syllabus 8865. Turn “given that” into the correct denominator, then check whether the events are truly independent.

  • Correct “given that” reasoning
  • Independence checks
  • Exam-language reminders
Two overlapping probability eventsEvents N and T overlap inside a sample space, with the T region highlighted as the new sample space. NTN ∩ T
01Condition first Once T is known, the T region becomes the denominator.
Built around 8865 H1 MathematicsProbability rules, conditional probability and independence
Useful during examination revisionRecognise the words before pressing the calculator

THE CENTRAL DISTINCTION

Restricted is not independent

P(A | B) asks for the proportion of B that also lies in A. The information that B occurred changes the sample space.

Independence is a separate claim: knowing B does not change the probability of A, so P(A | B) = P(A).

THREE CHECKS

Read the relationship before using a rule

01

“Given that B”?

Restrict attention to B.

P(A|B)=P(AB)P(B)
02

Independent?

Check a valid equivalent condition; do not assume it from the wording.

P(AB)=P(A)P(B)
03

Mutually exclusive?

The events cannot happen together.

P(AB)=0

WORKED EXAMPLE

Use the denominator named by the condition.

In a class, 60% revise with notes N, 45% attempt timed papers T, and 30% do both. Find P(N | T) and determine whether N and T are independent.

EXAM HABIT

Write the conditional-probability fraction before substituting values.

  1. 1

    Identify the restricted group

    The condition is T, so P(T) is the denominator.

  2. 2

    Calculate the conditional probability

    P(N|T)=P(NT)P(T)=0.300.45=23
  3. 3

    Test independence

    P(N)P(T)=0.60×0.45=0.270.30

    Therefore N and T are not independent.

AnswerP(N | T) = 2/3; the events are not independent.

COMMON MISTAKES

What to catch before the examiner does

01

Reversing the condition

P(A | B) and P(B | A) usually have different denominators and different values.

02

Equating “disjoint” with “independent”

Non-empty mutually exclusive events are not independent: one occurring rules out the other.

03

Assuming independence

Verify it using probabilities unless the question explicitly states it.

04

Losing the context

State conclusions about the actual events, not only symbols or calculator output.

PRACTISE WITH FEEDBACK

Show the probability model, not only the answer.

Submit typed or handwritten working and ask Integrand to check the event definitions, denominator and conclusion.

Try Integrand
  1. 1

    Define

    Name each event clearly.

  2. 2

    Represent

    Use a table, tree or Venn diagram.

  3. 3

    Conclude

    Answer in the language of the question.

QUICK QUESTIONS

H1 conditional probability FAQ

What does “given that” mean in probability?

It restricts the sample space to the event after the vertical bar. That event supplies the denominator in the conditional-probability formula.

How do I test whether two events are independent?

Check whether P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B), or equivalently whether P(A | B) = P(A) when P(B) is non-zero.

Is this guide within the H1 syllabus?

Yes. Conditional probabilities in simple cases, probability rules and independence are included in Singapore A-Level H1 Mathematics syllabus 8865.

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READY TO PRACTISE?

Explain your event model. Get feedback on the reasoning.

Open Integrand